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Real Estate Global · Library

Real estate global is the vertical where capital, residency, lifestyle, and tax planning all collide — most of the wealthy-cross-border-mobility decisions in practice route through a property purchase, even when the stated goal is something else. The world residential property market is roughly USD 380 trillion by Savills 2024 estimate, dwarfing global equity markets (~USD 110 trillion) and bond markets (~USD 130 trillion); commercial real estate adds another USD 35-40 trillion. Cross-border ownership is the slice that AJG cares about — perhaps USD 5-7 trillion of total holdings, with annual cross-border investment flows of USD 200-300 billion through cycles per JLL and CBRE capital-flows reports.\n\nForeign-ownership rules are the first filter. Some jurisdictions are essentially open: the UK (no restriction on foreign residential ownership), the US (likewise, with FIRPTA tax implications), Australia (FIRB approval required for non-citizens but generally granted), Canada (the 2023-2024 foreign-buyer ban created a temporary closed market in major cities), Portugal-Spain-France-Germany-Italy (open with country-specific stamp duty differentials), Mexico (foreigners can own outside the restricted zones via fideicomiso), Dubai-Abu Dhabi (open in designated freehold zones since 2002 onwards). Some are restrictive: Switzerland (Lex Koller restricts non-resident foreigners), Thailand (foreigners cannot own land freehold but can own condos up to 49% of a building), Indonesia (similar 49% rule on apartments, no land), Vietnam (50-year leases for foreigners), Philippines (40% cap on condo-building foreign ownership). Some are formally open but practically restricted: India (FEMA restrictions and the 2018 Benami Transactions Act make foreign residential ownership uneconomic for most), China (only one residential property allowed for non-resident foreigners with one-year-prior-residency requirement).\n\nGolden-visa programmes were the connective tissue that turned residential real estate into an immigration product through the 2010-2024 cycle. Portugal's Golden Visa (2012-2023, EUR 500K real-estate threshold, 2023 reform excluded property routes), Spain's investor visa (EUR 500K, ended 2024), Greece's Golden Visa (EUR 250K rising to 800K in select areas 2024), Cyprus's investor scheme (EUR 300K, citizenship pathway closed 2020 after EU pressure), Malta's residency-and-citizenship route (more elaborate, two programmes, Tier-1 EUR 700K), the UK Tier 1 Investor visa (closed 2022), the US EB-5 (USD 800K-1.05M targeted-employment-area, recently reformed), Canada's Quebec Investor Programme (terminated 2024), Caribbean CBI programmes (St Kitts, Antigua, Grenada, Dominica, St Lucia — all under EU pressure to tighten through 2024-2025), UAE's Golden Visa (10-year residency, AED 2 million property threshold), Mauritius's residence permit (USD 375K), Thailand's Elite Visa (THB 600K-2M for 5-20 years).\n\nResidential property in the AJG read is segmented into roughly six tiers globally. The trophy tier (Mayfair, Knightsbridge, Manhattan UES, Beverly Hills, Hong Kong Mid-Levels, Singapore Sentosa Cove, Monaco, Geneva, Hamptons): USD 5,000-30,000 per square foot. The luxury tier (most of central London, much of Tribeca, Pacific Heights, Coral Gables, Marylebone, Singapore CCR, Tokyo Minato Roppongi, Mumbai Malabar Hill, Delhi Lutyens): USD 1,500-5,000/sf. The premium tier covers most of central capitals globally. The mid-tier covers comfortable inner-suburb. Below that, mid-market and entry-level shape volume but not capital flows.\n\nCommercial real estate operates on different cycles. Office (currently most disrupted by hybrid work), retail (post-COVID restructuring), industrial-and-logistics (the e-commerce winner), data-centres (the AI build-out winner), residential-rental (regulatory headwinds in most major cities), hospitality (recovery story). Cap rates compressed dramatically through 2010-2021 and have re-expanded with central-bank rate hikes; the gap between core-trophy assets and value-add is wider than at any point since the GFC.\n\nAJG models real-estate global as a corridor question more than a country question — capital from Singapore family offices flows to London then Sydney and now selectively to Tokyo; capital from GCC sovereign-and-private-wealth flows to London, NYC, and now increasingly Mumbai-Bengaluru-Delhi commercial assets; capital from Indian HNI/UHNI families flows to Dubai, London, Singapore, Lisbon, Toronto, and increasingly the US. Each corridor has different tax, structuring, and reporting implications that connect back to the banking, tax-residency, and visa verticals AJG also tracks.