India-EU Green Hydrogen Trade: Where Commercial Flows Stand in 2026

India' National Green Hydrogen Mission targets 5 million tonnes production annually by 2030. EU REPowerEU targets 10 million tonnes of green hydrogen imports annually by 2030. Both targets are ambitious. The commercial reality in 2026: India-EU green hydrogen trade is still in feasibility and LOI phase.

What exists today: Several Indian renewable energy companies (NTPC Green Energy, Adani New Industries, Greenko) have signed Memoranda of Understanding with European energy companies (Shell, TotalEnergies, Equinor) for green hydrogen or green ammonia supply. These are commercial intention documents, not binding supply contracts. No commercial green hydrogen has shipped from India to EU.

Why commercial trade has not started: (1) Production cost: currently approximately USD 4-5/kg versus EU offtake price tolerance of approximately USD 3-4/kg. Cost reduction requires electrolyser cost reduction — on track for 2026-2028 per IRENA projections. (2) Shipping infrastructure: no dedicated large-scale green ammonia import terminals in EU are yet operational. (3) Certification framework: EU Delegated Act methodology finalised in 2023 — operational certification systems still being implemented.

Realistic timeline: 2027-2028 for first small-scale cargo shipments (demonstration); 2030-2031 for commercial scale. Indian renewable energy companies should use 2026-2027 to lock in long-term offtake LOIs with European buyers at floor price provisions — securing commercial relationships before market pricing develops.