🧭 The macro landscape
Economics & Policy.
Fiscal vs monetary dominance, de-dollarisation, neutral rates, real wages, and the policy shifts that ripple through trade and capital allocation.
Fiscal Over Monetary Dominance
📈 RisingMonetary policy constraints in most major economies mean governments are using fiscal policy — direct spending, subsidies, industrial policy — more actively. US IRA, CHIPS Act, and EU Green Deal are fiscal-first regimes; inflation persistence is a consequence.
2 sources · updated 2026-04-26 →
De-Dollarisation — The Real Picture
➤ SteadyUSD share of global FX reserves has gradually declined from ~73% (2001) to ~58% (2024), with most drift going to gold and "other reserve currencies" (CAD, AUD, CNY). Not an imminent collapse, but a long-run diversification trend with real implications for trade invoicing.
2 sources · updated 2026-04-26 →
India's 6.6% GDP Expansion
➤ SteadyIndia continues as fastest-growing major economy. Drivers: services export strength, manufacturing-via-PLI, digital infrastructure, young demographics. Risks: urban-rural divide, unemployment, climate exposure.
2 sources · updated 2026-04-26 →
The Neutral Rate Debate
➤ SteadyWhat is the "neutral" interest rate — the rate that neither stimulates nor restricts the economy — has significantly risen from pre-pandemic estimates. Fed SEP dots now cluster around 3.0%; markets pricing higher-for-longer.
1 source · updated 2026-04-26 →
Real Wage Growth vs Cost of Living
⚡ HighNominal wage gains have moderated while cost-of-living pressures (housing, insurance, food) remain elevated in many economies. Political and labour implications across US, UK, Germany, and France particularly.
2 sources · updated 2026-04-26 →
US Tariff Act 2026 — Policy Layer
🔥 BreakoutThe US Tariff Act 2026 reshapes duty schedules across 2,400+ tariff lines. Beyond immediate trade impact, it signals a durable shift in US trade policy toward "strategic tariffs" as industrial policy rather than pure revenue.
1 source · updated 2026-04-26 →