Trade Prospecting — Possibility, Plausibility, Probability & The 8 Golden Questions

On the supply side: Who owns the company? Who authorises export pricing? Who can sign an NCNDA and be bound by it? Is the contact person the decision-maker or a gatekeeper? On the demand side: Who in the buying organisation approves new suppliers? Who controls the procurement budget? Who has authority to sign the purchase order? The most common reason trade mandates stall is that Global Nexus has been introduced to the wrong person on one or both sides — a scout, a consultant, or a well-meaning but non-authorised contact. Identifying the true principal on both sides before any document is exchanged saves months.

• Name and title of authorised signatory on each side
• Ownership structure of each company (UBO clarity for KYC)
• Decision-making process — is there a committee? Board approval threshold?
• Who has previously signed similar contracts on this product

The most common source of trade dispute is specification ambiguity. "Engineering components" is not a specification. "ISO 4014 Grade 8.8 M12 x 50mm hex head bolts, zinc-plated, supplied in bulk boxes of 100, tested to EN 10204 3.1 material certificates, packed to ISTA 3A transport standard, labelled with EAN-13 barcode" is a specification. Global Nexus requires a complete product specification before any buyer introduction — because without it, the buyer cannot evaluate the supplier, the price cannot be verified, the HS code cannot be confirmed, and the compliance requirements cannot be mapped.

• Full product description with HS code (8-digit for India, 10-digit TARIC for EU)
• Technical specification or drawing reference
• Applicable standards (CE directive, ISO, ASTM, BIS, EN)
• Packaging, labelling, and marking requirements
• Minimum order quantity and typical order frequency
• Sample availability and lead time

Time mismatch is the second most common reason trade mandates fail after introduction. An EU buyer with a 4-week procurement window cannot work with an Indian supplier whose minimum lead time is 14 weeks. Conversely, an Indian supplier who has manufactured to stock cannot wait 6 months while an EU buyer runs an internal approval process. The "When" question must be answered honestly on both sides before introduction — and the answer must be compatible. Key sub-questions: When does the buyer's current supplier contract expire? When is the buyer's next procurement cycle? What is the supplier's current order book and capacity utilisation?

• Buyer's required delivery date or procurement cycle
• Supplier's production lead time (from order to shipment)
• Port-to-port transit time for this origin-destination pair
• Import clearance time at destination port (2-5 days typical EU)
• Total lead time from order to delivery vs. buyer's requirement

Origin and destination are not just geographic facts — they determine freight cost, transit time, port infrastructure quality, customs clearance complexity, and the applicable trade corridor. "India to Europe" is not a logistics specification. "Mundra Port (Gujarat) to Hamburg (Germany), FCL 40-foot container, via Suez Canal, Maersk direct service, 22-day transit, cleared at Hamburg customs" is a logistics specification. The Where question also covers free zones (does the buyer want goods delivered to a bonded warehouse? A Jebel Ali free zone re-export?), and incoterms selection.

• Exact origin: factory location → port of loading → vessel service
• Exact destination: port of discharge → customs clearance → delivery point
• Incoterms selection and risk transfer point
• Free zone involvement (if re-export or value addition)
• Alternative routing if primary route is disrupted (Red Sea alternative)

Understanding the underlying motivation on both sides is the single most powerful intelligence a trade broker can possess. A buyer looking for a new supplier because their existing Chinese supplier has quality problems will have very different expectations, urgency, and price sensitivity than a buyer who is exploring India opportunistically because they read an article about the India-EU FTA. A seller looking for EU market access because their domestic market has contracted has different urgency than one who is merely curious about export potential. The "Why" answer tells you: how motivated are the principals, what problem are they trying to solve, and what would make this mandate fail?

• Why is buyer switching or adding a new supplier? (Cost, quality, supply security, compliance, sanctions?)
• Why is seller targeting this export market now? (Excess capacity, domestic slowdown, strategic?)
• What happens if this mandate does not close? (What is each side's fallback?)
• What previous attempts have been made and why did they fail?

Most product categories have multiple variants, certifications, and regulatory pathways — and the choice between them has major commercial consequences. Pharmaceuticals: Which formulation? Which regulatory pathway (WHO-GMP for generic, EUGMP for EU market, EDMF for API, abbreviated pathway for biosimilar)? Which pharmacopoeia (IP, BP, USP, Ph.Eur.)? Textiles: Which fibre composition? Which REACH-compliant dyes? Which sustainability certification (GOTS, BCI, OEKO-TEX)? Engineering: Which material grade? Which surface treatment? The "Which" question prevents the most costly type of trade failure: goods that are manufactured correctly for the wrong specification.

• Which product variant or grade is required (not just the product name)?
• Which regulatory certification pathway applies to the destination market?
• Which sustainability or ethical certification does the buyer require?
• Which HS code applies — and does the supplier agree on classification?
• Which FTA staging schedule applies to this specific HS code?

The "Whose" question is the legal and commercial risk question disguised as a pronoun. In every trade mandate: Whose brand appears on the product? (If it is the buyer's brand, the seller is an OEM — different regulatory obligations.) Whose CE marking declaration is it? (The EU importer or the EU-established brand owner bears CE responsibility under GPSR 2024.) Whose product liability insurance covers a defective product injury? Whose commission is protected by the NCNDA — and for how long? Whose name appears as the exporter of record on the Shipping Bill? These questions are not bureaucratic — they determine who is liable, who is paid, and who bears the risk when something goes wrong.

• Whose brand appears on the product (OEM vs. private label vs. buyer brand)?
• Whose CE marking declaration / EU Responsible Person covers the product?
• Whose product liability insurance (EU importer must carry minimum coverage)?
• Whose NCNDA commission protection — and what is the circumvention period?
• Whose name on the Shipping Bill (Indian exporter) and EU import declaration (EU importer)?

The "How" question covers the three operational pillars of every trade mandate: payment mechanism, quality assurance, and dispute resolution. Payment: Letter of Credit (bank-guaranteed security), Documents Against Payment (bank-mediated but no guarantee), Open Account (fastest but highest credit risk), or hybrid (LC for first order, DAP thereafter). Quality: Pre-shipment inspection by SGS/Bureau Veritas/Intertek? Which testing standard? Whose lab? What happens if goods fail inspection? Dispute: Which law governs the contract? Which arbitration institution (ICC, LCIA, Singapore IAC)? Which seat? The HOW answers determine whether a deal is structured safely or recklessly — and they must be agreed before goods are ordered.

• Payment mechanism: LC/DAP/Open Account — who carries the credit risk?
• Quality assurance: pre-shipment inspection — who pays, which agency, which standard?
• Dispute resolution: governing law, arbitration institution, and seat
• Incoterms and risk transfer point (especially for damage in transit claims)
• How is the Global Nexus commission triggered and paid — and by whom?

The prospect arrives — referral, chamber event, cold approach, or inbound enquiry. Within 48 hours: apply the Three P test mentally. Is there an obvious Gate 1 failure? If yes: decline gracefully and explain why. If not obviously failing: proceed to Step 2.

Request the specific intelligence needed to answer all 8 Golden Questions. This is not a casual conversation — it is a structured data-gathering exercise. Send a qualification questionnaire. Review the responses honestly. Flag every unanswered question as a risk.

With the 8 Question data in hand, formally assess Possibility, Plausibility, and Probability. Write a brief internal assessment (1 page). If Gate 2 or Gate 3 fails, explain why to the prospect and suggest what would need to change for the mandate to become viable.

For mandates passing all three gates: conduct full KYC on both principals. Company registration verification, director identity, IEC number (India side), EORI (EU side). Sanctions screening: EU Consolidated List, OFAC SDN, UN Security Council. AML red flag check. No introduction is made without clean KYC on both parties.

Issue the Global Nexus NCNDA and Commission Agency Agreement. Both documents must be signed by authorised signatories (not just "agreed in principle") before any principal identity is shared. The circumvention period and commission rate are specified in the CCA.

With documents signed: introduce both principals. Attend or facilitate the first commercial call. Provide a call brief to both parties. Monitor that the introduction is being progressed — follow up within 5 business days.

From introduction to closing: monitor progress, provide document support (commercial invoice review, LC term checking, shipping document guidance), and facilitate any commercial impasse. Commission is earned on deal completion — we remain engaged until goods are shipped and paid.